VTrans Megatrend 3: Consumption Patterns
- Growth in e-commerce
- Greater automation of production and services
Three scenarios (low, medium, high) reflect uncertainty regarding forecasts. The policy relies on cumulative impacts of this and other macrotrends to identify risks and opportunities to the Commonwealth’s transportation system.
Macrotrend # 5: Growth in E-commerce
The leading factors for the growth in e-commerce include convenience and customer expectations, willingness to pay for delivery services, and willingness to pay for shipping services. The following chart shows the projected market share of e-commerce in a medium-impact scenario.
E-commerce Market Share of Business-to-Business (B2B) and Business-to-Consumer (B2C) trade, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045
This chart is intended for view in portrait mode or on larger screens
Macrotrend # 6: Greater Automation of Production and Services
The leading factors for greater automation of production and services include growth of the e-commerce, expanded use of just-in-time production, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and digitization of production and distribution. The following chart shows the projected market share of 3D printing output and drone deliveries in a medium-impact scenario.
Market Shares of 3D Printing Output and Drone Deliveries, Medium Impact Scenario, 2045
This chart is intended for view in portrait mode or on larger screens
Cumulative Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on Virginia’s Transportation Goals
Cumulative impacts and the resulting risks and opportunities this and other Macrotrends are available on this webpage: Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. Please refer to the following resources for more information:
- The Technical Guide for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register for methods and processes utilized to develop the estimates.
- InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view infographics related to this and other macrotrends.
Noteworthy Items
- The intent is to prepare, not predict. This risk-based approach allows for identification and analysis of a range of potential impacts to help determine temporal proximity and relative priority.
- Policy drivers can modify trends to achieve more desirable outcomes.
- The Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register allows for monitoring and annual reporting of these trends.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Looking for more specific information about the Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page