VTrans is Virginia's Transportation Plan. It is prepared for the Commonwealth Transportation Board by the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment.

Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

VTrans Long-term Planning focuses on the development and monitoring of a Long-term Transportation Risk & Opportunity Register. A methodical and systematic monitoring of Long-term risks and opportunities allows Virginia to be better prepared to achieve the Commonwealth Transportation Board’s Vision for Transportation.

In the first step for the Draft Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk Opportunity Register, VTrans identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes). This webpage focuses on Steps 3 and 4.

DRAFT Policy for the Identification and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

The draft policy includes the five steps shown in the interactive graphic below.

Chapter 6 of the VTrans Policy Guide contains the draft policy to develop and monitor the risk & opportunity register. A companion document, the Technical Guide, is developed for planners, engineers, and other professionals interested in the data sources, processes, and methods used to implement the CTB’s policies.

Four Megatrends and Ten Macrotrends are identified based on literature review.

Megatrend 1: Climate

  • Macrotrend 1: Increase in Flooding Risk

Megatrend 2: Technology

  • Macrotrend 2: Adoption of Highly Autonomous Vehicle
  • Macrotrend 3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles
  • Macrotrend 4: Growth in Shared Mobility

Megatrend 3: Consumption

  • Macrotrend 5: Growth in E-Commerce
  • Macrotrend 6: Greater Automation of Goods and Services

Megatrend 4: Socio-Demographics

  • Macrotrend 7: Growth of Professional Service Industry
  • Macrotrend 8: Increase in Workplace Flexibility
  • Macrotrend 9: Growth of the 65+ Cohort
  • Macrotrend 10: Population and Employment Shift
Measures are established for each VTrans Goal to allow for quantification of macrotrend impacts

  • Metric for Goal A: Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) Index
  • Metric for Goal B: Shared Mobility Index
  • Metric for Goal C: Safety Index
  • Metric for Goal D: At-risk Roadways
  • Metric for Goal E: Tailpipe Emission Index
    • In Step 3, three scenarios (low, medium (most likely), and high) estimating the impact the 10 macrotrends identified in Step 1 on the metrics for CTB priorities (Step 2) are developed.
    OrderMacrotrend (in the order of impact)VMTShared MobilitySafetyAt-risk RoadsEmissions
    AMacrotrend 1✔
    BMacrotrend 9Impacts are part of the baseline assumptions
    CMacrotrend 7✔✔✔
    Macrotrend 2✔✔✔✔
    Macrotrend 3✔✔✔
    Macrotrend 4✔✔
    DMacrotrend 6✔✔
    Macrotrend 5✔✔✔
    EMacrotrend 8Impacts are part of the baseline assumptions
    Macrotrend 10
    A Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register is developed based on the guidance from CTB members, stakeholders, and subject-matter experts to help organize and communicate a common understanding of risks and opportunities and to ensure a common strategy to meet the CTB Goals. For the purpose of this register, the following definitions are used:

    • Risks: Uncertainties that could have negative outcomes
    • Opportunities: Uncertainties that could have positive outcomes

    VTrans Trend Trackers are identified to provide updates to the CTB on VTrans Macrotrends as well as any changes to the items identified in the VTrans Risk and Opportunity Register once per calendar year in July or September.

    Macrotrend #1: Increase in Flooding Risk

    • Number of directional miles at-risk from sea level rise
    • Number of directional miles at-risk from storm surge
    • Number of directional miles at-risk from inland/riverine flooding
    • Annual cost of transportation repair due to flooding events

    Macrotrend #2: Adoption of Highly Autonomous Vehicles

    • Market Penetration of Semi-Autonomous (Levels 1 and 2) Vehicles
    • Attitude and Preferences for Adoption of Semi-Autonomous (Levels 1 and 2) Vehicles
    • Market Penetration of Highly Autonomous (Levels 3 and 4) Vehicles
    • Attitude and Preferences for Adoption of Highly Autonomous (Levels 3 and 4) Vehicles

    Macrotrend #3: Adoption of Electric Vehicles

    • Number of Electric Vehicles
    • Market Penetration of Electric Vehicles
    • Attitude and Preferences for Adoption of Electric Vehicles
    • Transportation Revenue by Revenue Source

    Macrotrend #4: Growth in Shared Mobility

    • Access to Shared Mobility Services
    • Utilization of Shared Mobility Services by Type

    Macrotrend #5: Growth in E-commerce

    • Number of Warehouse and Distribution Centers
    • Square Footage of Warehouse and Distribution Centers
    • Share of E-commerce Sales (Business-to-business, business-to-customers)
    • Number of Jobs in Goods Movement Dependent Industries

    Macrotrend #6: Greater Automation of Production and Services

    • Value output of 3D Printing
    • Number of short-range drone deliveries
    • Number of long-range drone deliveries

    Macrotrend #7: Growth of Professional Service Industry

    • Share of Professional Service Industry
    • Number of STEM Jobs

    Macrotrend #8: Increase in Workplace Flexibility

    • Number of Workers with Workplace Flexibility
    • Utilization of Workplace Flexibility

    Macrotrend #9: Growth of the Age 65+ Cohort

    • Number of Virginians with Age 65 or higher
    • Share of Age 65+ Cohort

    Macrotrend #10: Population and Employment Shift

    • VTrans Land Use Vitality (LUV) Index
    • Population
    • Employment
    • Income

    Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goals

    In the third step, the cumulative impacts of four Megatrends (Climate, Technology, Consumption, and Socio-Demographics) are estimated on each of the five CTB Goals.

    VMT Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal A

    VMT Index estimates change in Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.

    *In this image, cumulative impacts are relative to 1.00 which is 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario where VTrans Mega/Macrotrends have no impacts.


    Shared Mobility Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal B

    Shared Mobility Index estimates urban auto single-occupancy VMT switchable to Micromobility + TNC/Ridesourcing compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.

    *In this image, cumulative impacts are relative to 1.00 which is 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario where VTrans Mega/Macrotrends have no impacts.


    Safety Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal C

    Safety Index estimates change in the number of crashes involving fatalities + serious injuries compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.

    *In this image, cumulative impacts are relative to 1.00 which is 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario where VTrans Mega/Macrotrends have no impacts


    At-Risk Roadways: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal D

    At-Risk Roadways estimates number of directional roadway miles at-risk from flooding.



    Tailpipe Emissions Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal E

    Tailpipe Emissions Index estimates change in tailpipe emissions Compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.

    *In this image, cumulative impacts are relative 1.00 which is 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario where VTrans Mega/Macrotrends have no impacts.

    VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register

    In the fourth step for the Draft Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register a Risk & Opportunity Register is developed that identifies risks and opportunities for Virginia's transportation system due to the external factors or Megatrends in the coming decade (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes).


    Uncertainty with negative impacts on CTB Goals in Step 3.  Uncertainty with a positive impact on CTB Goals in Step 3.

      MACROTREND    NATURE  DESCRIPTION
    A large number of the state's roadways are at risk of flooding
    Several unknown and unquantified flooding risks are present
    Impacts of increased flooding risk are disproportionately higher for certain geographic areas and populations
    Proactively eliminate or mitigate identified flooding risks
    Increase the state's preparedness to address other macrotrends associated with the climate change megatrend
    Greater wear-and-tear of the transportation system due to increased VMT and increase in average vehicle weight
    Improve the state's ability to manage a transportation system with a high number of highly autonomous vehicles
    Maximize safety benefits offered by highly autonomous vehicles, especially those with Automated Driving System
    Reduce tailgate emissions and minimize environmental impacts of the transportation system
    Increased curb access conflicts in urbanized areas
    Projected growth in shared mobility (micromobility and TNC/ridesourcing) does not provide measurable transportation system benefits
    Benefits of shared mobility are not equally accessible by all areas and population segments
    Utilization of shared mobility services to improve accessibility
    Improve the state's ability to manage a transportation system with high number of shared mobility vehicles
    Proactively eliminate or mitigate transportation impacts associated with e-commerce including those related to large warehouse and distribution centers
    Improve state's ability to proactively manage transportation impacts associated with greater automation of production and services
    Maximize utilization of workplace flexibility for telework capable jobs
    Transportation system and services are unable to meet mobility needs of Virginians age 65 and older

    Frequently Asked Questions

    Looking for more specific information about the VTrans mid-term needs? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions page.

    How to get involved

    The VTrans team will be working on the policy for the Development and Monitoring of the VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register through Fall 2021. An online webinar is planned for stakeholder engagement.

    • Subscribe to our Newsletter or revisit this web page for updated information
    • Visit the Meetings page to find presentations and events in your area
    • Contact us for more information