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January 21, 2022The Latest on Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

In December 2021, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) adopted the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register. OIPI will provide an annual update on the identified risks and opportunities. Please utilize InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view and download jurisdiction-specific data.

Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

VTrans Long-term Planning focuses on the development and monitoring of a long-term transportation risk & opportunity register which identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes). This webpage focuses on the impacts of these megatrends and the resulting risks and opportunities.

Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register

The policy includes the five steps shown in the interactive graphic below.

Chapter 6 of the VTrans Policy Guide contains the policy to develop and monitor the risk & opportunity register. A companion document, the Technical Guide, is developed for planners, engineers, and other professionals interested in the data sources, processes, and methods used to implement the CTB’s policies.

Step 1: Identify Mega and Macrotrends
Step 2: Develop Metrics for CTB Goals
Step 3: Estimate Impacts of Mega and Macrotrends on CTB Goal Metrics
Step 4: Develop Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register
Step 5: Track Macrotrends

Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goals

The cumulative impacts of the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes) on each of the five CTB Goals is estimated. There is significant uncertainty around the forecasts; therefore, three scenarios - High, Medium, and Low Impacts - are developed.

VMT Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal A

(VMT Index estimates change in Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

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Shared Mobility Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal B

(Shared Mobility Index estimates urban auto single-occupancy VMT switchable to Micromobility + Ridesourcing compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

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Safety Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal C

(Safety Index estimates change in the number of crashes involving fatalities + serious injuries compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

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At-Risk Roadways: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal D

(At-Risk Roadways estimates number of directional roadway miles at-risk from flooding.)

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Tailpipe Emissions Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal E

(Tailpipe Emissions Index estimates change in tailpipe emissions Compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)

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VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register

The Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk& Opportunity Register identifies long-term risks and opportunities for Virginia's transportation system due to the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes).


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1: A large number of the state's roadways at risk of flooding
2: Several unknown and unquantified flooding risks are present
3: Impacts of increased flooding risk are disproportionately higher for certain geographic areas and populations
4: Proactively eliminate or mitigate identified flooding risks
5: Increase the state's preparedness to address other macrotrends associated with the climate megatrend
6: Greater wear-and-tear of the transportation system due to increased VMT and increase in average vehicle weight
7: Improve the state's ability to manage a transportation system with a high number of highly autonomous vehicles
8: Maximize safety benefits offered by highly autonomous vehicles, especially those with Automated Driving System
9: Higher vehicle miles traveled (VMT) for each unit of economic activity compared to the present fleet
10: Minimize environmental impacts of the transportation system development
11: Increase in curb access conflicts in urbanized areas
12: Projected growth in shared mobility (micromobility and TNC/ridesourcing) does not provide measurable transportation system benefits
13: Benefits of shared mobility are not equally accessible by all areas and population segments
14: Utilization of shared mobility services to improve accessibility
15: Improve the state's ability to manage a transportation system with high number of shared mobility vehicles
16: Proactively eliminate or mitigate transportation impacts associated with e-commerce including those related to large warehouse and distribution centers
17: Improve state's ability to proactively manage transportation impacts associated with greater automation of production and services
18: Maximize utilization of workplace flexibility for telework capable jobs
19: Transportation system and services are unable to meet mobility needs of Virginians age 65 and older

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Looking for more specific information about the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions web page.