Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register
VTrans Long-term Planning focuses on the development and monitoring of a long-term transportation risk & opportunity register which identifies four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes). This webpage focuses on the impacts of these megatrends and the resulting risks and opportunities.
Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register
The policy includes the five steps shown in the interactive graphic below.
Chapter 6 of the VTrans Policy Guide contains the policy to develop and monitor the risk & opportunity register. A companion document, the Technical Guide, is developed for planners, engineers, and other professionals interested in the data sources, processes, and methods used to implement the CTB’s policies.
- VTrans Policy Guide (v6)
- VTrans Technical Guide: Development and Monitoring of Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register (v3)
- Visit the InteractVTrans Data Explorer to view Macrotrends and their estimated impacts on Virginia’s transportation system.
Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goals
The cumulative impacts of the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes) on each of the five CTB Goals is estimated. There is significant uncertainty around the forecasts; therefore, three scenarios - High, Medium, and Low Impacts - are developed.
VMT Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal A
(VMT Index estimates change in Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
Shared Mobility Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal B
(Shared Mobility Index estimates urban auto single-occupancy VMT switchable to Micromobility + Ridesourcing compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
Safety Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal C
(Safety Index estimates change in the number of crashes involving fatalities + serious injuries compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
At-Risk Roadways: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal D
(At-Risk Roadways estimates number of directional roadway miles at-risk from flooding.)
Tailpipe Emissions Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal E
(Tailpipe Emissions Index estimates change in tailpipe emissions Compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register
The Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk& Opportunity Register identifies long-term risks and opportunities for Virginia's transportation system due to the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-Demographic Changes).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Looking for more specific information about the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions web page.