Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register
VTrans Long-term Planning focuses on the impacts of Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes on Virginia’s transportation system over the next 20 years. These four powerful and transformative forces are known as Megatrends. The policy includes five steps to develop a long-term risk register for transportation agencies to monitor.
Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register
The policy to develop a long-term plan (20+ years) includes five steps to identify, analyze, and monitor powerful and transformative trends that impact the transportation system. This policy is included as Chapter 6 of the VTrans Policy Guide. Practitioners such as planners and engineers can utilize VTrans Technical Guide: Development and Monitoring of Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register (v3) for the details and visit the InteractVTrans DataExplorer to view the data.
Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goals
The cumulative impacts of the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes) on each of the five CTB Goals is estimated. There is significant uncertainty around the forecasts; therefore, three scenarios - High, Medium, and Low Impacts - are developed.
VMT Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal A
(VMT Index estimates change in Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
Shared Mobility Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal B
(Shared Mobility Index estimates urban auto single-occupancy VMT switchable to Micromobility + Ridesourcing compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
Safety Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal C
(Safety Index estimates change in the number of crashes involving fatalities + serious injuries compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
At-Risk Roadways: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal D
(At-Risk Roadways estimates number of directional roadway miles at-risk from flooding.)
Tailpipe Emissions Index: Cumulative Impacts of VTrans Mega/Macrotrends on CTB Goal E
(Tailpipe Emissions Index estimates change in tailpipe emissions Compared to the 2045 Business-As-Usual Scenario.)
VTrans Risk & Opportunity Register
The Policy for the Development and Monitoring of VTrans Risk& Opportunity Register identifies long-term risks and opportunities for Virginia’s transportation system due to the four Megatrends (Climate, Technological Advancements, Consumption Patterns, and Socio-demographic Changes).
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Looking for more specific information about the Policy for Development and Monitoring of VTrans Long-term Risk & Opportunity Register? Find more information on our Frequently Asked Questions web page.